WEEKLY E-MAIL

21 May 2021

APRIL UNEMPLOYMENT DOWN TO 5.5%

By Rebecca Lowe

The end of the JobKeeper subsidy on 28 March 2021, was expected to result in a number of people losing or changing the jobs. April is the first month of employment data published since the end of JobKeeper, and while latest employment data shows the number of workers in jobs fell 30,600 in April after increasing 70,700 in March, and 88,700 in February, these movements could be attributed to the usual month-to-month variations or seasonal changes in the labour market. As such there were no significant indicators in the April employment figures of the impact of the end of the JobKeeper subsidy.

Unemployment in Australia fell from 5.7% to 5.5% in April as a result of the number of people looking for work falling, marking the sixth consecutive month of a fall in the unemployment rate. In April last year when the country was at the peak of lockdown restrictions as a result of the pandemic, unemployment was at 6.4% and trending upwards.

While there continues to be uncertainty about the true state of the labour market following the end of JobKeeper, all measures of demand including job ads, show that a large number of employers are looking for workers.

In March, SEEK reported the highest number of monthly job ads in its 23+ year history, with national job advertisements rising 75.1% compared to March 2020 when COVID-19 first impacted the labour market. Around 33,800 new, full-time jobs were created in the month of April.

When the unemployment rate reached 7.5% in July 2020, some economists were tipping that it would ultimately peak in excess of 16%. To date the economy has out-performed ‘official’ forecasts from Federal Treasury and the Reserve Bank. If this continues then monetary and fiscal stimulus measures will need to be reviewed, although this is not likely to happen any time soon with international borders remaining closed, the vaccine rollout stalling and JobKeeper ending just a month ago.

Rebecca Lowe
Senior Para-Planner
Authorised Representative No. 453075

If you have any questions or comments, please email me at rebecca@gfmwealth.com.au

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