“TRADE SECRETS” – Audio Recording – August 2017

You can listen to the recording below or alternatively, click on the download link to save the recording to your device/computer.

INVESTMENT MARKET OUTLOOK 2017

Welcome to our 19th audio edition of our Annual Investment Market Outlook.

Recorded on the 16th August 2017, Paul Nicol interviewed Stephen Halmarick, Head of Economic and Market Research at Colonial First State Global Asset Management.

About Stephen Halmarick

Stephen joined Colonial First State Global Asset Management in March 2009. He has over 30 years experience as a financial markets economist, working for companies such as Westpac, SBC Australia, Nomura and, from 1994-2009 for the Salomon Smith Barney Citibank group, where he held the title of Managing Director and Co-Head of Economic and Market Analysis.

As the Head of Economic and Market Research, Stephen works closely with all the investment management teams to ensure a broad understanding of the macro environment impacting on markets.

Stephen is also the key spokesperson to clients and media on all macroeconomic themes and broader financial market issues.

Stephen and his team produce both Economic Research notes and Thought Pieces, designed to inform and guide clients on the key issues impacting the global and Australian economy and financial markets. They also author the Travelling Economist series, providing clients with insights and feedback on developments in key economies around the world, including China, India and Japan to date.

Stephen is widely quoted in the press, including the Australian Financial Review, Sydney Morning Herald and The Australian. He also regularly appears on Sky Business, Bloomberg and CNBC TV.

Stephen holds a degree in Economics from Macquarie University and a graduate diploma from the Securities Institute of Australia. He is also the current Chairman of the Australian Business Economists (ABE) and has been a member of the ABE Executive Committee for over a decade.

About the recording

The purpose of the recording is to discuss with a financial expert some of the themes that are driving investment markets and where the potential opportunities lie in the coming next 12 months.

In our recording, Stephen gives very detailed answers to many important questions, including:

• The IMF in April revised up their 2017 global growth outlook to 3.5% year (from 3.4%) which was the first upward revision for many years. What caused the upwards revision in the global growth number?
• The US Fed has now raised the official cash rate over the last 12 months from 0.5% to 1.25%. Are more increases likely, and if so, will rate increases potentially slow the growth rate in US?
• The current economic growth cycle in the US economy is now 96 months long. Are there any obvious imbalances in the US economy which could threaten the current growth cycle?
• The elephant in the room when talking about the US is Donald Trump. Will President Trump’s policies (if legislated) lead to a permanent shift higher in the long-run potential growth rate of the US economy?
• 2017 seems full of political risk for Europe, but recently we have seen encouraging signs of economic growth in Europe. Are we past the worst of the Eurozone’s risks?
• China’s annual GDP growth rate has been remarkable stable for the past few years – defying some market expectations of a marked slowdown and, indeed, gradually accelerating in the past 18 months or so. But there is plenty of scepticism about the veracity of the China’s official GDP data. What is your short-term to medium term view on China?
• Australia’s GDP growth finished March 2017 at 1.7% the lowest rate since the 2009 GFC inspired slowdown. Why is Australia’s GDP softer and is this a sign of more difficult times ahead?
• The RBA rate is currently 1.50%, with some are suggesting it has bottomed and rates may start to increase from early next year but others saying rates may fall further. What is your view on the likely next move for Australian Interest rates?
• The Australian government currently has total debt of around $420 billion at 30 June 2016 and is continuing to grow. How important is it that the Australian government gets its debt under control? Is Australia’s AAA credit rating at risk if we don’t get our debt under control?
• Residential housing in Australia is expensive and household debt to income recently hit new highs around 180%. There appears to be too much leverage in Australian residential property market. Is this a risk for our economy and the banking sector?
• After reaching a low of $0.72 the Australian Dollar has strengthened significantly recently trading above $0.80. Why has the AUD against the U.S Dollar strengthened and what is your outlook for the Australian Dollar?
• The Australian share market, somewhat against expectation returned 14.09% for financial year 2016-17 and Australian superannuation fund investors enjoyed returns of just over 10% for the financial year. What were the major reasons why Australian investors enjoyed such a strong year and are these type of returns sustainable going forward?
• For the first time in many years we have seen a synchronized upswing in global growth. Does this make you optimistic about the outlook for investment returns?

We think you’ll enjoy listening to our investment market audio recording, which goes for a little bit more than 30 minutes, and we would also be delighted to receive any feedback that you have in relation to the audio. Please email mai@gfmwealth.com.au with any feedback, suggestions or possible future questions.