We held our second Quarterly business Lunch for the year on Thursday 18th June at Riversdale Golf Club. This was well attended by 85 clients and guests.
Our special guest presenter was Stephen Halmarick, who is the Head of Economic and Market Research for Colonial First State Global Asset Management.
The current economic backdrop is both challenging and complex. In Australia, many parts of our economy are underperforming, there is more evidence of a slowing economy in China, economic growth in the United States seems to have stalled and again it appears Greece is getting much closer to default.
Stephen gave an overview of the current Global economic backdrop, and how this is likely to affect investments markets over the next couple of years.
Stephen’s presentation covered the following:
Global – Growth moderate but should improve
- Central Banks becoming more aggressive with greater divergence
- Impact on bond markets has been dramatic
- Oil leading inflation down
US – Getting closer to the first interest rate hike
- Employment growth remains solid, despite a hiccup
- Inflation – too low
- When to raise rates, not if!
China – Slower growth, easier policy
- A changing mix of growth
Japan – Mass stimulus, but inflation still low
- GDP growth recovering
- Deflationary concerns lead to Bank of Japan action
Europe – Stimulus helping, Greece the worry
- Growth starting to improve
- European Central Bank (ECB) balance sheet set expanding
- Inflation ticked up, reinforcing ECB’s plan
- Bond markets continue to rally (except Greece)
Australia – Below trend growth, transition continues
- Economic growth rate below average and income growth flat
- Mining investment slowing, non-mining not recovering. Is the hurdle rate to blame?
- A lack of animal sprits; consumer & business confidence is low
- Unemployment expected to peak at 6.5%
- Inflation contained
- Housing market very strong
- Budget position deteriorating – but debt levels low by global standards
- RBA still concerned about high AUD
The feedback from the attendees was excellent. Clients felt the presentation was exceptional and expressed how much they enjoyed the presentation and the way it was presented.
If you didn’t attend the session and would like to receive a copy of the presentation emailed to you, please call Mai on 9809 1221.